Far from dead

It goes without saying that the 2011 federal election produced many surprises. There was of course the winning of a majority government by Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, a feat unanticipated by most analysts and pundits. There was also the ‘orange wave’ that swept across the province of Québec and propelled the New Democrats into the role of the Official Opposition; a phenomenon largely having come in the wake of the late Jack Layton’s charisma and charm during the election campaign, and subsequently resulting in the virtual disappearance of the Bloc Québécois from Canada’s current Parliament. And finally, there was the shocking election results of the Liberal Party, as the party once referred to as ‘Canada’s natural governing party’ was reduced to only 34 seats in the House of Commons.

However, as equally stunning as the actual outcome of the federal election itself, was the chorus of sentiment coming from many journalists, editorialists and political pundits that an irreversible seismic shift had occurred in Canadian Federal politics, and that the result of which signalled the eminent demise of the Liberal Party of Canada.

Personally, I had no idea that those in the Canadian media who follow political affairs closely could be as irrational and reactionary in their analysis and assessment as their American counterparts.

Nevertheless, the rhetoric was unwaveringly definitive in nature. Many who cover Canada’s political ‘goings on’ were convinced that the last federal election was ultimately the first step toward a permanent left-right cleavage in federal politics, one that would inevitably result in a two party system occupied by the NDP and Conservatives respectively. The Liberal Party was said to have lost its relevance, no longer able to effectively straddle the political centre, nor able to count on its traditional base of support, most notably in Ontario and Québec. In fact, Canadian journalist and author Peter C. Newman went so far as to write a book, “When the Gods Changed: The Death of theLiberal Party,” which focuses on the ‘long coming’ disappearance of the federal Liberals, citing the infighting of the Chrétien-Martin years, and a disconnect with average Canadians (especially in Western Canada) as being the kiss of death for the party.

Now it’s true that the Liberal Party has recently been the victim of weak leadership, power struggles, insular thinking and, subsequently, an inability to connect with many Canadians. However, in considering the cyclical nature of politics, it’s foolish to assume that the unique dynamics and factors accounting for the results of 2011 federal election signify a definitive shift in Canadian federal politics.

The last federal election exemplified the ‘leader-centric’ nature of Canadian party politics today; the Conservatives successful defamation of Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff, and the cult of personality that developed around NDP leader Jack Layton, are phenomena specific to the 2011 federal election campaign. Who’s to say that come 2015, the next Liberal leader won’t be able to rally the nation behind the Liberals’ cause?

It should also be pointed out that the strategy developed by Michael Ignatieff and company was ill-planned to say the least. It was evident that Mr. Ignatieff attempted to push the Liberals to the left on socio-economic issues, in an attempt to pick-off support from the NDP; however, this idea backfired, as Jack Layton was masterful in rallying left-leaning Liberals to his party’s cause, while many centrists and ‘Blue Grits’ were turned off by the Liberals’ socio-economic policies, as well as the manufactured image of Ignatieff as an elitist and self-serving leader, and subsequently flocked to Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. 

Perhaps most remarkable of all the unique characteristics of the 2011 federal election was what transpired in Québec. Many Québécois decided to abandon their traditional support for Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc Québécois, and instead hedge their bets on Québec’s voice being louder with Jack Layton’s NDP, which would have held the balance of power if the largely anticipated minority Parliament would have come to fruition.   

In putting into perspective the specific variables largely accounting for the outcome of the 2011 federal election, it was unfounded to claim that the Liberals’ poor showing was indicative of a party on its last legs; and this is especially true in considering the deep roots the Liberals maintain within Canada’s political culture. How quickly was forgotten the 1984 federal election, when Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives won a convincing 211 seats in the House of Commons, while John Turner’s Liberals were only able to obtain 40. Fast forward to the 1993 federal election, when Jean Chrétien’s Liberals came back to life by winning a majority government with 177 seats, as the Progressive Conservatives were reduced to only two MPs. Once again it needs to be said, politics is cyclical.

True, the Liberal Party was humbled, embarrassed, and punished for its insular thinking, including in selecting a leader, and the inability to convey a clear and confident message on the issues that are most pressing to many Canadians (most notably economic policy). That being said, the Liberals are far from being an extinct species in Canadian politics, and the party still has enough of a pulse to seize the opportunity it has been given to rebuild and re-invent itself; and if the Liberals’ 2012 Biennial Convention was any indication, the message of the obligation to change has been received by party members and executives alike. There is now seemingly an understanding among Liberals that it is not enough to be the ‘anti-Harper’ party. Liberals must present ideas and policies that are able to resonate with the majority of the Canadian electorate that is preoccupied with the economy, but still believing in Canada’s tradition of social liberalism and the promotion of social justice.

Liberals obviously need to do a lot of work in order to truly restore confidence in the Liberal brand, most notably in Western Canada and in Québec; however, if the Liberal Party plays its cards right, there is an opportunity to galvanize support behind the party from those ‘centrists’ minded Canadians, who are uncomfortable with Stephen Harper’s doctrine of maintaining a grip on power with populist rhetoric and policies (see the Conservatives' asinine and costly crime bill as a prime example).

After the Liberals’ recent Biennial Convention in Ottawa, it was interesting to see the wave of admiration for the Liberal Party’s efforts in considering measures aimed at rebuilding. Seemingly, the sentiment from the media has largely shifted from declaring that the Liberal Party is on life support, to now stating that we are in the midst of a Liberal ‘resurrection’. As for the damage to the credibility of many of Canada’s political analysts and prognosticators–well, that’s a different story.